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Give Us a Break-Gate

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FOXBOROUGH – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick said the kicking footballs used in the first half of Sunday’s 27-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs were “under-inflated by 2, 2 1/2 pounds.”

“We don’t have anything to do with it. Were we aware of it? Yeah, definitely,” Belichick said on Friday. “As I understand it, they were all the same. I don’t know what the explanation is. It was the same for both teams.”

Patriots rookie kicker Chad Ryland misfired on a 41-yard attempt, and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker missed on a 39-yard try. Butker made all 23 of his field-goal attempts and 34 extra-points tries heading into that game.

“The officials handle that, and they were underinflated by like 2, 2.5 pounds,” Belichick told reporters. “I think you could see that by the kicks. Both kickers missed kicks, and Butker hadn’t missed a kick all year.

“Kickoffs, we had two that almost went out of bounds. And so there were six balls. It was both sets of balls. It was all six of them. You’d have to talk to the league about what happened, because we don’t have anything to do with that part of it. They control all of that. And they fixed them at halftime but didn’t do it before then, which is another question you could ask. But we don’t have anything to do with it.”

If Belichick sounded like he was on the defensive, well consider that the Patriots were ultimately fined $1 million, docked two draft picks and saw then-quarterback Tom Brady suspended four games by the NFL for what is referred to as “Deflategate.” The league determined that a scheme was afoot to provide improperly inflated footballs for the AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts on Jan. 18, 2015.

–Field Level Media

NFL: Saturday Game Previews

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PITTSBURGH – (Staff and Wire Service Reports) – It’ll be a weekend filled with NFL Playoff-like football as Christmas weekend scheduling will determine playoff contenders and those relegated to the land of NFL Draft prep. Here are the Saturday games:

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7): Playoff football arrives early for AFC North rivals who’ve undergone major facelifts since Pittsburgh’s 16-10 win over the Bengals in Cincinnati on Nov. 26. The Steelers have lost three straight, temporarily remain without starting quarterback Kenny Pickett, benched his backup Mitch Trubisky, lost starting safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to a knee injury and their other starting safety — Damontae Kazee — was suspended. Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning was making his first NFL start in that first meeting and generated just 222 yards of total offense, but Browning and the Bengals are back on their feet. They enter Week 16 with three straight wins, including a pair of overtime victories, and currently sit ahead of Pittsburgh and in playoff position in the packed AFC postseason picture. Browning has completed 76 percent of his passes since Week 12 and thrown for more than 1,000 yards in his first four NFL starts — the only NFL quarterback to do so since 1950. Steelers QB Mason Rudolph took over for Trubisky in last week’s loss to the Colts and will make his first start since 2021. The Steelers left the door “ajar” for Pickett if could return from ankle surgery to play, but he was officially ruled out on Thursday. While playoff probability metrics reveal odds of 64 percent to make the playoffs with a win this week, it’s not all roses and balloons for the Bengals, either. Cincinnati is without WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder).

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9): The Bills are desperate in their hunt for a playoff spot as one of five teams in the AFC with an 8-6 record, currently outside of the seven playoff spots in the conference and two games behind the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East. “Every game from here on out’s a playoff game for us,” Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen said. “That’s the mentality that we have. It’s essentially win or go home. We’ve got to be prepared for every punch the Chargers can throw at us.” The Bills have won consecutive games and coach Sean McDermott has cautioned his team all week about what can happen if preparation isn’t taken seriously. All is not well in L.A. The Chargers were loaded with bitter faces when they were annihilated 63-21 by the Las Vegas Raiders on Dec. 14. It was such a poor performance that the club fired coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco. The Chargers have dropped five of their past six games, and their fortunes are low with star quarterback Justin Herbert done for the season after finger surgery on his throwing hand. Los Angeles will be without star receiver Keenan Allen (heel) for the second straight game. He didn’t practice all week and was ruled out Thursday. Allen has a league-high 108 receptions while accumulating 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns.

–Field Level Media

NFL Week 16: Playoff Possibilities

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SANTA CLARA – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – The San Francisco 49ers’ Christmas gift could be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Niners, the only 11-3 team in the NFC, have a straightforward path to clinching the top seed and a first-round bye in Week 16, according to the NFL’s official playoff scenarios.

If the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles all lose, the 49ers would lock up the No. 1 seed on Christmas night by beating the visiting Baltimore Ravens — who happen to be the only other 11-3 team in the league.

Detroit visits the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas takes on the host Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Christmas Eve. Then, the Eagles play the middle game of a Christmas Day tripleheader against the visiting New York Giants before the Ravens visit San Francisco in the nightcap.

The Lions (10-4) would clinch the NFC North title with a win or tie against Minnesota. If that doesn’t happen, they can still lock up a playoff bid if the Seattle Seahawks lose or tie. The Rams bettered their chances with a win over the New Orleans Saints on Thursday. The Seahawks visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Over in the AFC, the Ravens — who have already punched their postseason ticket — can win the AFC North by beating the 49ers and having the Browns lose or tie against the Houston Texans, or if the Ravens tie and the Browns lose.

The Browns (9-5), for their part, have eight scenarios to clinch a playoff berth this week, all of which start with a win at Houston. The Browns are on the verge of their second playoff berth in 21 seasons.

If the Dolphins (10-4) beat the Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills lose or tie at the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday, Miami would clinch the AFC East title. That would also be the result if Miami ties Dallas and Buffalo loses.

The Christmas Day tripleheader begins with the struggling Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs (9-5) can lock up their eighth straight AFC West title if they beat Las Vegas, or if they tie with the Raiders and the Denver Broncos lose to New England.

–Field Level Media

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NFL: Rams Make a Stand

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INGLEWOOD – LA Rams QB Matthew Stafford threw two touchdown passes and the surging Los Angeles Rams strengthened their playoff chances with a 30-22 victory against the visiting New Orleans Saints on Thursday night.

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Stafford passed for 328 yards and threw touchdowns to Puka Nacua, who had 164 receiving yards, and Demarcus Robinson as the Rams (8-7), who entered the game in possession of the final wild-card berth in the NFC, won for the fifth time in six games.

Derek Carr passed for 319 yards, including 123 to Chris Olave, and three touchdowns, but two of them came after the Saints (6-7) fell behind 30-7.

The Rams received the second-half kickoff and drove to the Saints 3 before stalling, and Lucas Havrisik kicked a 22-yard field goal that gave them a 20-7 lead.

Kyren Williams ran for 10 of his 104 yards and a touchdown that pushed the lead to 27-7 and Havrisik added a 32-yard field goal before Carr threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to Juwan Johnson.

Carr connected with A.T. Perry for a 35-yard touchdown and a two-point conversion to Olave to trim the lead to 30-22 with 3:53 left, but the Rams recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock.

Los Angeles started its first possession at its 5 and the 14th play of the drive was a 2-yard touchdown pass from Stafford to Nacua on fourth-and-goal, giving the Rams a 7-0 lead at the end of the first quarter.

The Rams drove to Havrisik’s 20-yard field goal and a 10-0 lead, but missed an opportunity to increase the lead when Havrisik was wide left on a 47-yard field-goal attempt.

The Saints broke through when Carr connected with Rashid Shaheed for a 45-yard touchdown pass that cut the lead to 10-7.

New Orleans turned the ball over at the Rams 42 with 56 seconds left in the half when Carr threw an incompletion on fourth-and-5.

Five plays later, Stafford threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Robinson that increased the lead to 17-7 at halftime.

–Field Level Media

Season on the Line for Ravens and Jags

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JACKSONVILLE – Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is hearing his name mentioned in the MVP conversation, but that doesn’t impress him much. The Baltimore star is more interested in making a run for the Super Bowl and Lombardi Trophy, and his top-seeded AFC team can take a big step in that direction when the Ravens visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday night.

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Baltimore (10-3) holds a one-game lead over the Miami Dolphins at the top of the conference. There are nine scenarios in which the Ravens can clinch a playoff spot Sunday should they defeat the Jaguars (8-5).

Linebacker Patrick Queen is one of many Baltimore players eyeing the top seed and first-round bye, especially with the Ravens winning three straight games and seven of their past eight.

“We want it bad,” Queen said. “If we don’t get it, we make the playoffs. We’re still in there.”

Jackson was the NFL MVP in 2019 and appreciates the praise for his 2023 individual season, which includes 2,934 passing yards and 16 touchdown throws. He also has 644 yards and five scores on the ground.

But Baltimore hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2020 season, and Jackson is focused on changing that.

“It’s an honor just being acknowledged — to be in the conversation with great guys,” Jackson said. “But I’m just trying to stay locked in trying to win, because I want (the Lombardi) trophy.”

Jackson is coming off a superb performance in which he passed for 316 yards and three touchdowns and tacked on 70 rushing yards in last week’s 37-31 overtime home win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Baltimore won that contest on a 76-yard punt-return score by Tylan Wallace. The third-year-pro was only handling the duties because two-time Pro Bowl selection Devin Duvernay injured his back earlier in the season.

Duvernay was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, and Wallace now will be the team’s main returner.

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Jacksonville will look to end a two-game slide in which it lost to the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns by a combined seven points.

The Jaguars have seen their lead in the AFC South shrink to one game over the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. But Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence said he’s not concerned.

“We’re in a fine position, record-wise,” Lawrence said. “We have to take care of business this week and moving forward. We have to take it one week at time. We need to get back on track this week for sure.”

Lawrence has been dealing with a high ankle sprain sustained against the Bengals on Dec. 4. He was questionable for last week’s game against the Browns before playing and getting mixed results — 257 passing yards and three touchdowns but also throwing three interceptions.

He practiced in full on Wednesday and said he’s making progress.

“It’s feeling better. Thankfully, I made out of the game pretty clean,” Lawrence said. “I didn’t re-aggravate it anymore. I’m just trying to keep getting better every day; hopefully it feels even better this week. I was able to move around decent on Sunday, so that was positive.”

As per containing Jackson, the Jaguars rank fourth in the NFL in rushing defense at 92.2 yards per game.

Jacksonville also features two standouts. Pass rusher Josh Allen is tied for third in the NFL with 13.5 sacks, and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun ranks second in tackles with 138. Oluokun led the league in tackles each of the past two seasons.

Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith is tied for third with 136 tackles, while safety Geno Stone is second with six interceptions.

Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton (knee) was injured against the Rams but was a limited practice participant on Wednesday. Smith (back) also was limited.

For Jacksonville, safety Andre Cisco (groin) and cornerback Tyson Campbell (quadriceps) didn’t practice. Cisco was hurt against the Browns while Campbell missed the contest.

The Jaguars notched a dramatic 28-27 home win over the Ravens last season. Lawrence tossed a 10-yard scoring pass to since-departed Marvin Jones with 14 seconds left, followed by a winning two-point conversion pass to Zay Jones.

–Field Level Media

NFL: Week 15 Primer

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LAS VEGAS – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – Holiday shopping season has been a smashing hit.

We found Buffalo and Josh Allen to be profitable last week, along with the Rams (+7.5) taking the Ravens into OT before losing on a punt-return TD (but LA covered!).

Our player prop, Texans QB CJ Stroud under 226.5 passing yards also hit.

This week we’ll go high and low, with a three-team teaser as our main selection.

See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

The big three betting lines:

Dolphins -8.5 vs. Jets
Rams -6.5 vs. Commanders
Chiefs -7.5 at Patriots
(per DraftKings)

We’ve assembled a tasty plus-money three-team teaser, fading the revenge factor while considering one particular facet of the weekend weather.

First, we are teasing the Jets’ number to a whopping +17.5. It’s not because we believe in a Zach Wilson renaissance; rather, it’s that we don’t believe the Dolphins are dramatically better than they showed in Monday night’s upset at the hands of the Tennessee Titans.

Add the weather factor: It’s going to be windy in Miami. Deep throws to Miami speedsters might not be readily available, and the Jets would like to control the clock – similar to the Titans’ scheme.

Next up, the Los Angeles Rams. We can’t quit them. As their collective health improves, so, too, does their record. In another must-win game, LA can’t afford to play carelessly against the wobbly Commanders – but we’ll tease ourselves a little cushion just to be sure.

Finally, we already jumped off the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon and can see others doing the same. The “KC will figure it out” crowd is thinning, and Sunday’s opponent, the Patriots, have nothing to lose (except a prime draft position).

The Chiefs don’t appear to have the hammer anymore. We think the talented Patriots defense can keep this close enough to cover, and hope that Bailey Zappe doesn’t throw a couple of pick-6s.

The bet, a three-team teaser parlay (+105 at DraftKings):

Jets +17.5
Rams +3.5
Patriots +14.5

THEY SAID IT

“It’s tough man. It’s real tough, and all we can do is bounce back and just try to go out there and give everything we have. We’re playing a tough, tough team this next week that plays really good defense.”

– Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the critical Kadarius Toney offside penalty that helped doom KC last week.

BONUS COMBO

Falcons at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Falcons -3, total 34 (FanDuel).

The one feels too easy.

The Falcons need the victory to continue chasing the NFC South title, while the Panthers are in experiment mode under interim head coach Chris Tabor.

The quarterback matchup, Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder vs. Carolina’s Bryce Young, is a mismatch. Momentum is going the Falcons’ way.

Ridder threw for 347 yards last week while Young hit only 13 of his 36 pass attempts for 137 yards.

The forecast has rain and some wind, so while Ridder has some scrambling ability and a stronger arm, Young will be challenged again.

Atlanta receivers Drake London (10 catches) and Kyle Pitts (a touchdown reception!) are finding their form.

The play: Tease Falcons down to -2.5 (-148 at FanDuel).

PROP CORNER

Rachaad White, the talented Tampa Bay running back, had success last week in a 29-25 win over Atlanta, and has posted rushing totals of 100, 81 and 102 yards over the past three games.

The Bucs are on the road for the second consecutive week, this time at Green Bay, and face an angry group of Packers.

There isn’t much fear from the Packers regarding QB Baker Mayfield, so there should be added focus on the ground game.

The Bucs’ rushing success recently can be seen as a bit of a mirage, too, as they are better than only two NFL teams in rush success rate and were 24th in EPA per rush entering Week 15.

White is due for regression and, after 45 carries the past two games, he’s likely to see fewer carries as well. The number was 81.5 early Thursday but had been bet down to 80.5 by Thursday afternoon.

Prop play: Buccaneers RB Rachaad White under 80.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM, FanDuel).

– Field Level Media

NFL Saturday 2023

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CINCINNATI – The first NFL Saturday schedule of 2023 starts with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Minnesota Vikings (1:00pm EST), but the two nightcaps promise to be playoff-deciding football, especially for the four participating teams, all (7-6) on the season or better.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6): A wildcard intersection might become a postseason off-ramp for the loser of this game depending on how dominoes fall Sunday. The Colts lost for the first time since the end of October last week at Cincinnati and cracks are starting to appear in the run defense. Indianapolis has been hit for at least 125 rushing yards in six of the past seven games. Pittsburgh, what with a backup quarterback and milquetoast offense, is primed to deploy a ground-and-pound approach using a conservative running game to back the Steelers’ stout defense. Indianapolis won’t have top back Jonathan Taylor (thumb) again, but the combination of Gardner Minshew and WR Michael Pittman Jr. has been filthy. Pittman has at least eight receptions in six consecutive games.

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Denver Broncos (7-6) at Detroit Lions (9-4): Sean Payton brought the Broncos back from the brink of self-combustion by lending a stronger voice to defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. Denver has a string of eight consecutive games holding opponents to 22 or fewer points with 18 takeaways in the past seven games and 15 sacks in the past three. Lions coach Dan Campbell sees the dashboard warning lights, but believes the easy fix to most of what ails Detroit is the turnover battle. The return of safety CJ Gardner-Johnson should spark the secondary, but more consistent play from QB Jared Goff has been the focus for Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Goff threw two picks and was sacked four times in the Lions’ loss at Chicago last week.

NFL Week 15 Props

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FOXBORO – (Staff and Wire Service Reports) With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, all 32 teams have had their byes and a full slate of games is on the docket through Week 18.

There are plenty of options on the board if you’re shopping for player props.

Here are three we like on Sunday.

–Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
The emergence of Isiah Pacheco relegated Edwards-Helaire to a backup role in the Chiefs’ running back pecking order. However, Edwards-Helaire did get a chance to start in Week 14 against the Bills, as Pacheco was inactive due to a shoulder injury.

Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly convincing, rushing for 39 yards on 11 carries. His 3.5 yards per carry matched his season mark, perhaps suggesting that this is as good as it will get with the backup running back.

Edwards-Helaire couldn’t get much going against a Bills team that ranks 18th in the FTN Network’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Next up for the Chiefs is a Patriots defense that sits atop the league using the same metric.

Given how the Chiefs run their offense, ranking 26th with a run play rate of 38.7%, I question whether there are enough carries for Edwards-Helaire to go over this prop.

–Ezekiel Elliott under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Elliott is coming off a season-high 22 carries, he ran for just 3.1 yards per carry. He was more effective out of the backfield, with 72 receiving yards on seven receptions.

I’ll expect him to regress to the mean against a Chiefs team that will be in a foul mood following their 20-17 home loss to the Bills.

Questions continue to linger about Kansas City’s wide receiver group, which has been underperforming despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City can get right against this Patriots pass defense that ranks 24th in Nfelo’s expected points added (EPA) metric.

Part of Elliott’s increase in usage in Week 14 might have more to do with how the game played out, given that New England jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and held on for a 21-18 victory.

The Patriots are likely to be chasing the game against the Chiefs, making them less likely to prioritize a rushing attack with Elliott staying under his attempts prop.

–Mitch Trubisky over 4.5 rushing attempts (+114 at DraftKings)
At 7-6, the Steelers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC. Seating could change quickly given that four teams with identical records remain in the hunt for one of the three wild-card spots.

Pittsburgh is currently on a two-game losing streak and won’t have starting quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle injury. The Steelers will turn to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky when they desperately need a win to snap a two-game losing streak.

Thus, it’s imperative that the Steelers put together a strategy that suits Trubisky’s skillset. That game plan should include rolling Trubisky out of the pocket and calling some designed run plays for the quarterback.

His lone start this season was last week, and he carried the ball eight times. He’s had two other games where he didn’t start but took roughly half of the quarterback snaps and finished with three carries in each contest.

If Trubisky can play the entire game, I expect him to use his legs and go over this rushing prop. Note that this Colts defense can be vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in both EPA and DVOA.

–Field Level Media

NFL: Rooney Sportsmanship Finalists

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NEW YORK – (Staff and Wire Service Report from Official News Release) – The eight finalists for the 2023 Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award, given annually to an NFL player who best demonstrates the qualities of on-field sportsmanship, were announced Thursday by the league.

The finalists are:

AFC:

Defensive end Maxx Crosby (Las Vegas)

Linebacker Khalil Mack (Los Angeles Chargers)

Linebacker C.J. Mosley (New York Jets)

Guard Kevin Zeitler (Baltimore)

NFC:

Safety Budda Baker (Arizona)

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk (San Francisco)

Quarterback Dak Prescott (Dallas)

Linebacker Bobby Wagner (Seattle)

A four-member panel from the NFL Legends Community whittled the list of 32 NFL team nominees to eight. Voting for the winner will be done on the Pro Bowl ballot.

The award was created in 2014 and named for Art Rooney Sr., the late founding owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

“Each nominee has displayed the character of Mr. Rooney’s legacy,” said former Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, a member of the panel. “The award represents teamwork, competitiveness, hard work and integrity while on the field.”

–Field Level Media

NBC Opts for Eagle Over Michaels

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NEW YORK – (Staff and Wire Service Report) -NBC plans to use 26-year-old Noah Eagle as the play-by-play voice for its No. 2 NFL playoff broadcast crew in January, passing on venerable voice Al Michaels.

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NBC “Sunday Night Football” tandem Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth have the call of the network’s primary playoff broadcast next month, but NBC declined to bring back Michaels for the second game. Instead, the college football broadcast team of Eagle and Todd Blackledge with sideline reporter Kathryn Tappen was assigned the No. 2 game.

Michaels, 79, reportedly earns $1 million per game in an agreement with Amazon that affords him the opportunity to accept assignments from NBC in his “emeritus” label granted when he left at the end of his last contract in 2022.

Michaels and Tony Dungy called the AFC wild-card game in Jacksonville last year, when the Jaguars rallied from a 27-point deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers.

Eagle is the son of Ian Eagle, an established play-by-play announcer for CBS, TBS and TNT, working college basketball, NBA and NFL games. Noah Eagle replaced Ian Eagle on YES Network NBA broadcasts this season.

Noah Eagle, Blackledge and Tappen are also assigned to the NBC regular-season broadcast of Steelers-Bengals on Dec. 23 and the Nickelodeon kid-focused broadcast of Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11.

Michaels has been the voice of primetime NFL coverage since 1986, first on “Monday Night Football” until he took the “Sunday Night Football” job alongside John Madden in 2006. He worked in the SNF role until the end of the 2021 season.

He currently calls Thursday night games streamed on Amazon Prime Video with analyst Kirk Herbstreit.

–Field Level Media