By TERRY LYONS, Editor of Digital Sports Desk
BOSTON – Last season, they finished with four road games, a 2-2 split with the AL East champion Baltimore Orioles. At Fenway, the Red Sox lost their last four games of the season. They finished 78-84 and in last place in the Orioles’ division. It wasn’t pretty.
This year, a challenging 10-game road trip with four at Seattle, three at Oakland and three at the LA Angels of Anaheim put doubt in the minds of the Fenway faithful. Might they head home with a record 2-8 or 3-7 and be back in the basement?
No.
The Boston Red Sox play their home opener today boasting a 7-3 record, including a split at Seattle, a sweep at (lowly/sad) Oakland and a series-winning 2-games-to-1 edge over the Angels in the outfield. That’s good enough for second place in the early-season ladder, but 1.5 behind a New York Yankees team built for October.
It is ridiculous to expect this Red Sox team to stay at a .700 percent win rate. The pace would translate to 113.4 wins in the 162-game season. Of course, the schedule would need to place the Oakland A’s as the Sox opponent for three of every 10 games, and the Sox’ 50-24 (+26) run differential would be required to win at such a clip.
What’s a more reasonable expectation (prediction) for the 2024 Boston Red Sox?
Let’s concentrate on the whopping 35 games to measure the gap between a 78-win last place finish and an absurd 113-game season. If the Red Sox can go .500 in those 35 games, they’d finish the season with 95 wins.
Last season, the Toronto Blue Jays qualified for the last AL Wild card spot with 89 victories while the Tampa Bay Rays topped the Wild Card race with 99 wins. In the NL, Arizona’s 84 wins were enough to punch a ticket to the Wild Card and that berth led them to the 2023 World Series when they lost to the Texas Rangers in six games.
As Celtics’ great Kevin Garnett might predict, “If you can make it to the Wild Card, ‘ANYTHING is POSSIBLE.'”
What will it take for a team – more often than not – picked to finish in the AL East cellar to win some 90-plus games?
Pitching.
And, staying healthy.
On the pitching: Heading into the home opener, Boston leads the Majors with a 1.49 ERA (15 ER/90.1 IP), the club’s lowest mark through 10 games in the Live-Ball Era (since 1920). The Red Sox are the 11th team in the Live-Ball Era to post an ERA below 1.50 through their first 10 games, and the first since the star-studded 2005 Florida Marlins.
That’s pretty good.
On the injury front: Not so great. The Red Sox lost starting shortstop Trevor Story, their No. 3 hitter, to an injured shoulder. Diagnosed as a dislocated shoulder some 24 hours after the injury, which occurred when Story dove for a Mike Trout ground ball towards center field, the Boston-area medical staff has not determined the prognosis for the long term. While the Sox placed Story on the 10-game injured list, there’s a chance he’s out for the year, according to the Boston Globe.
Aside from the devastating news on Story, the Sox are also missing outfielder Rob Refsnyder (toe) and infielder and highly regarded prospect, Vaughn Grissom (hamstring/groin injury).
Injuries are a part of the game, but the 2024 MLB season seems to be taking that fact to a new high. Dozens of top-notch players – league wide – are already banged up, including All-Star/Cy Young award candidates like Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves or Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber who will miss the entire 2024 season as he plans to undergo Tommy John surgery.
Those are the issues that make judging an entire season somewhat useless after only 10 games. But, let’s compare notes after the Red Sox open under a bright blue sky today and start a 10-game homestand. Might they be 14-6?
Or better?
Or worse?