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NFL in Germany

NFL Sunday Morning Capsule: Berlin

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Atlanta Falcons (3-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (Berlin)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Colts -6.5, Total 48.5
Series Rewind: The Colts are 15-3 all-time against the Falcons but Atlanta won the most recent meeting, 29-10 on Christmas Eve 2023, behind QB Taylor Heinicke.

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The first ever NFL game in Berlin pits two teams who have done the passport football thing a time or two. The Falcons are 2-2 all-time in international games and the Colts are bringing the league’s No. 1 scoring offense (32.2 ppg) to Germany after previously playing in Frankfurt. Indianapolis arrives with a bit of novelty having added All-Pro CB Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline. The Colts also are trying to rebound from a five-turnover showing by the offense in a loss to the Steelers last week. QB Daniel Jones started a November game in Germany with the Giants in 2024 before New York pulled the plug on his tenure with the team. Jones passed for 342 yards last week. He’ll attempt to get more out of his backfield running mate Jonathan Taylor to keep the Falcons’ speed rushers off-balance. When Taylor is clicking, the Colts’ excel with RPO-driven options that demand disciplined reads from a defense and open throwing lanes underneath where rookie TE Tyler Warren is thriving. He’s second in the league at the position with 518 receiving yards. Taylor leads the NFL with 12 touchdowns and is second in yards from scrimmage (1,113). He’s just ahead of Falcons RB Bijan Robinson (1,058), who ranks third in the league. QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London hooked up for three TD passes in Week 9. London has been used some in the slot, which might take away the potential for a one-on-one matchup with Gardner.

Belichick Takes It One Trip at a Time

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FRANKFURT (Germany) – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – Not to be confused with Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, NFL fans in Germany will be treated to another matchup of popular NFL teams when the sub-.500 New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts play Sunday in Frankfurt.

After the NFL came to Germany for the first time last season, Frankfurt received a turn with games in consecutive weeks. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 21-14 there last week.

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The Patriots (2-7), the designated home team, have international marketing rights in Germany and are a fan favorite there because of their German-born former offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer — not to mention their six Super Bowl victories from 2001 to 2018.

“It’s a unique opportunity,” said coach Bill Belichick, whose Patriots teams are 3-0 in international games all-time. “When it gets there, we’ll look forward to it.”

Owners of the worst record in the AFC, the Patriots are not at all playing like the dynasty of the past two decades, and while it may have been unthinkable a few years ago, the proverbial seat is getting hotter for Belichick as New England continues to lose.

A 20-17 defeat to the Washington Commanders was the Patriots’ fifth loss in six weeks. They’ll have their bye week upon returning from Germany.

Mac Jones steadied to some degree after a dismal early October. He threw for 220 yards and one touchdown against Washington and didn’t take a sack, but he was intercepted on the last drive of the game as the Patriots scored just three points after halftime.

“Just being consistent and trying to work together,” Jones said of the offense’s struggles. “We have some young guys playing, and just making sure we’re all on the same page and out there executing each week. Like I say, each week’s different and it’s important to understand what we need to do this week.”

This week’s task involves getting past an opportunistic defense. Kenny Moore of the Colts (4-5) scored two pick-6s in a 27-13 win over the Carolina Panthers last week. That ended a three-game losing streak that saw the Colts allow 37, 39 and 38 points.

Jones is tied for the league lead with nine interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns.

As for the Colts’ offense, Gardner Minshew has been under center since rookie Anthony Richardson’s season-ending shoulder injury. But the Colts are a run-first team, and while Jonathan Taylor is the household name, Zack Moss ranks second in the NFL with 615 rushing yards this season.

“We know this stretch, this back-half stretch, is where teams have to bolster up,” Taylor said. “You’re either gonna go up or you’re gonna go down, so (the game will) do a lot in order to make sure that we can continue to trend upwards.”

Both the Colts and Patriots are practicing at home through Thursday and taking a flight overseas Thursday night, landing Friday morning Frankfurt time.

“We’re going over there on a business trip to go win a football game,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said. “That’s the message — it’s just a long road trip. Stay focused.”

One player not making that trip is Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson, who reportedly is being disciplined for reporting late to the team hotel last Saturday.

Jackson did not practice Wednesday and was ruled out along with left tackle Trent Brown (personal/ankle) and wide receiver DeVante Parker (concussion) as the Patriots departed for Germany on Thursday.

Defensive lineman Christian Barmore (knee), linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (hamstring) and cornerback Jonathan Jones (knee) made the trip but were limited in practice.

On Thursday, the Colts ruled out tight end Andrew Ogletree (foot) and cornerback Julius Brents (quadriceps).

–Field Level Media

NFL: Week 9 Player Props

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ATLANTA – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – With eight weeks of the regular season in the books, we have a mature player props market with plentiful data points. Finding winners will become increasingly difficult as the bookmakers sharpen their lines. As a result, this is the time of year when exercising discipline can save your bankroll.

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When studying player props, we typically skew more toward playing under this time of year. However, after beginning with an overall handicap of the Week 9 games, I noticed that quite a few overs piqued my interest.

That can sometimes be a red flag, so we will be a bit cautious in adding more plays. As a result, these are three most intriguing player props heading into Week 9.

–Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke over 10.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith announced they’re turning to Heinicke after the veteran backup replaced Desmond Ridder last week in the third quarter against the Titans.

Ridder underwent a concussion evaluation at halftime and, despite being cleared, did not check back into the game. He’s been turnover-prone and Heinicke was very productive, albeit against a Titans’ defense clearly playing it safe with a big lead.

Heinicke orchestrated four scoring drives for 20 points and 253 total yards compared to one scoring drive for three points in the first half for Ridder. And while Smith doesn’t view this change as permanent, Heinicke is clearly auditioning for the job.

Opportunities for Heinicke to run the ball against a Minnesota defense that forces opposing quarterbacks to step up in the pocket.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings lead the league with a 52.7 percent blitz rate. That’s almost 10 percent higher than the Giants, who rank second at 43.1.

The Vikings have also allowed the sixth-most rushing yards (170) to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Based on these factors, we have enough to play Heinicke over his rushing prop.

–Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa over 22.5 pass attempts (-130 at FanDuel)

There are plenty of storylines in Germany as two of the AFC’s top teams take part of the NFL’s International Series.

The Dolphins and Chiefs have matching 6-2 records. But Miami has yet to beat a team with a record over .500. In comparison, the Chiefs have three wins over .500 teams.

There’s also the Tyreek Hill angle, as the dynamic wide receiver will line up against his former team after spending five years in Kansas City before he was traded during contract talks with the Chiefs.

Even before playing his first game with the Dolphins, Hill drew some criticism after commenting that Tagovailoa was a more accurate passer than Mahomes.

While some in the media interpreted Hill’s comments as a slight towards Mahomes, he never said Tagovailoa was the better quarterback. Hill praised Mahomes for having the stronger arm between the two.

Nonetheless, we have a revenge angle here with Hill facing the Chiefs.

This game will take place at Deutsche Bank Park, which has a retractable roof. The total remains steady at 50.5, the highest of the week.

Given the subplots with Tagovailoa vs. Mahomes and Hill facing his former team, it wouldn’t surprise me if this game turns into a track meet.

–Tyson Bagent over 18.5 completions (-110 at DraftKings)
With Justin Fields still nursing a right thumb injury, Bagent will make his third straight start. While the rookie has only 80 passes this season, he’s completing 70 percent of his attempts.

It also doesn’t hurt that his average intended air yards (5.6) puts him dead last among quarterbacks with at least 68 pass attempts.

It’s not a stretch to think that the Bears’ passing offense is somewhat risk-averse with Bagent under center.

If the Bears continue with this conservative approach, Bagent should be able to pick up some easy completions against the Saints with this prop going over the number.

–Field Level Media