FOXBORO – (Staff and Wire Service Reports) With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, all 32 teams have had their byes and a full slate of games is on the docket through Week 18.
There are plenty of options on the board if you’re shopping for player props.
Here are three we like on Sunday.
–Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
The emergence of Isiah Pacheco relegated Edwards-Helaire to a backup role in the Chiefs’ running back pecking order. However, Edwards-Helaire did get a chance to start in Week 14 against the Bills, as Pacheco was inactive due to a shoulder injury.
Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly convincing, rushing for 39 yards on 11 carries. His 3.5 yards per carry matched his season mark, perhaps suggesting that this is as good as it will get with the backup running back.
Edwards-Helaire couldn’t get much going against a Bills team that ranks 18th in the FTN Network’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
Next up for the Chiefs is a Patriots defense that sits atop the league using the same metric.
Given how the Chiefs run their offense, ranking 26th with a run play rate of 38.7%, I question whether there are enough carries for Edwards-Helaire to go over this prop.
–Ezekiel Elliott under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Elliott is coming off a season-high 22 carries, he ran for just 3.1 yards per carry. He was more effective out of the backfield, with 72 receiving yards on seven receptions.
I’ll expect him to regress to the mean against a Chiefs team that will be in a foul mood following their 20-17 home loss to the Bills.
Questions continue to linger about Kansas City’s wide receiver group, which has been underperforming despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City can get right against this Patriots pass defense that ranks 24th in Nfelo’s expected points added (EPA) metric.
Part of Elliott’s increase in usage in Week 14 might have more to do with how the game played out, given that New England jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and held on for a 21-18 victory.
The Patriots are likely to be chasing the game against the Chiefs, making them less likely to prioritize a rushing attack with Elliott staying under his attempts prop.
–Mitch Trubisky over 4.5 rushing attempts (+114 at DraftKings)
At 7-6, the Steelers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC. Seating could change quickly given that four teams with identical records remain in the hunt for one of the three wild-card spots.
Pittsburgh is currently on a two-game losing streak and won’t have starting quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle injury. The Steelers will turn to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky when they desperately need a win to snap a two-game losing streak.
Thus, it’s imperative that the Steelers put together a strategy that suits Trubisky’s skillset. That game plan should include rolling Trubisky out of the pocket and calling some designed run plays for the quarterback.
His lone start this season was last week, and he carried the ball eight times. He’s had two other games where he didn’t start but took roughly half of the quarterback snaps and finished with three carries in each contest.
If Trubisky can play the entire game, I expect him to use his legs and go over this rushing prop. Note that this Colts defense can be vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in both EPA and DVOA.
–Field Level Media