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Season on the Line for Ravens and Jags

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JACKSONVILLE – Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is hearing his name mentioned in the MVP conversation, but that doesn’t impress him much. The Baltimore star is more interested in making a run for the Super Bowl and Lombardi Trophy, and his top-seeded AFC team can take a big step in that direction when the Ravens visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday night.

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Baltimore (10-3) holds a one-game lead over the Miami Dolphins at the top of the conference. There are nine scenarios in which the Ravens can clinch a playoff spot Sunday should they defeat the Jaguars (8-5).

Linebacker Patrick Queen is one of many Baltimore players eyeing the top seed and first-round bye, especially with the Ravens winning three straight games and seven of their past eight.

“We want it bad,” Queen said. “If we don’t get it, we make the playoffs. We’re still in there.”

Jackson was the NFL MVP in 2019 and appreciates the praise for his 2023 individual season, which includes 2,934 passing yards and 16 touchdown throws. He also has 644 yards and five scores on the ground.

But Baltimore hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2020 season, and Jackson is focused on changing that.

“It’s an honor just being acknowledged — to be in the conversation with great guys,” Jackson said. “But I’m just trying to stay locked in trying to win, because I want (the Lombardi) trophy.”

Jackson is coming off a superb performance in which he passed for 316 yards and three touchdowns and tacked on 70 rushing yards in last week’s 37-31 overtime home win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Baltimore won that contest on a 76-yard punt-return score by Tylan Wallace. The third-year-pro was only handling the duties because two-time Pro Bowl selection Devin Duvernay injured his back earlier in the season.

Duvernay was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, and Wallace now will be the team’s main returner.

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Jacksonville will look to end a two-game slide in which it lost to the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns by a combined seven points.

The Jaguars have seen their lead in the AFC South shrink to one game over the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. But Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence said he’s not concerned.

“We’re in a fine position, record-wise,” Lawrence said. “We have to take care of business this week and moving forward. We have to take it one week at time. We need to get back on track this week for sure.”

Lawrence has been dealing with a high ankle sprain sustained against the Bengals on Dec. 4. He was questionable for last week’s game against the Browns before playing and getting mixed results — 257 passing yards and three touchdowns but also throwing three interceptions.

He practiced in full on Wednesday and said he’s making progress.

“It’s feeling better. Thankfully, I made out of the game pretty clean,” Lawrence said. “I didn’t re-aggravate it anymore. I’m just trying to keep getting better every day; hopefully it feels even better this week. I was able to move around decent on Sunday, so that was positive.”

As per containing Jackson, the Jaguars rank fourth in the NFL in rushing defense at 92.2 yards per game.

Jacksonville also features two standouts. Pass rusher Josh Allen is tied for third in the NFL with 13.5 sacks, and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun ranks second in tackles with 138. Oluokun led the league in tackles each of the past two seasons.

Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith is tied for third with 136 tackles, while safety Geno Stone is second with six interceptions.

Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton (knee) was injured against the Rams but was a limited practice participant on Wednesday. Smith (back) also was limited.

For Jacksonville, safety Andre Cisco (groin) and cornerback Tyson Campbell (quadriceps) didn’t practice. Cisco was hurt against the Browns while Campbell missed the contest.

The Jaguars notched a dramatic 28-27 home win over the Ravens last season. Lawrence tossed a 10-yard scoring pass to since-departed Marvin Jones with 14 seconds left, followed by a winning two-point conversion pass to Zay Jones.

–Field Level Media

NFL: Week 15 Primer

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LAS VEGAS – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – Holiday shopping season has been a smashing hit.

We found Buffalo and Josh Allen to be profitable last week, along with the Rams (+7.5) taking the Ravens into OT before losing on a punt-return TD (but LA covered!).

Our player prop, Texans QB CJ Stroud under 226.5 passing yards also hit.

This week we’ll go high and low, with a three-team teaser as our main selection.

See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

The big three betting lines:

Dolphins -8.5 vs. Jets
Rams -6.5 vs. Commanders
Chiefs -7.5 at Patriots
(per DraftKings)

We’ve assembled a tasty plus-money three-team teaser, fading the revenge factor while considering one particular facet of the weekend weather.

First, we are teasing the Jets’ number to a whopping +17.5. It’s not because we believe in a Zach Wilson renaissance; rather, it’s that we don’t believe the Dolphins are dramatically better than they showed in Monday night’s upset at the hands of the Tennessee Titans.

Add the weather factor: It’s going to be windy in Miami. Deep throws to Miami speedsters might not be readily available, and the Jets would like to control the clock – similar to the Titans’ scheme.

Next up, the Los Angeles Rams. We can’t quit them. As their collective health improves, so, too, does their record. In another must-win game, LA can’t afford to play carelessly against the wobbly Commanders – but we’ll tease ourselves a little cushion just to be sure.

Finally, we already jumped off the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon and can see others doing the same. The “KC will figure it out” crowd is thinning, and Sunday’s opponent, the Patriots, have nothing to lose (except a prime draft position).

The Chiefs don’t appear to have the hammer anymore. We think the talented Patriots defense can keep this close enough to cover, and hope that Bailey Zappe doesn’t throw a couple of pick-6s.

The bet, a three-team teaser parlay (+105 at DraftKings):

Jets +17.5
Rams +3.5
Patriots +14.5

THEY SAID IT

“It’s tough man. It’s real tough, and all we can do is bounce back and just try to go out there and give everything we have. We’re playing a tough, tough team this next week that plays really good defense.”

– Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the critical Kadarius Toney offside penalty that helped doom KC last week.

BONUS COMBO

Falcons at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Falcons -3, total 34 (FanDuel).

The one feels too easy.

The Falcons need the victory to continue chasing the NFC South title, while the Panthers are in experiment mode under interim head coach Chris Tabor.

The quarterback matchup, Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder vs. Carolina’s Bryce Young, is a mismatch. Momentum is going the Falcons’ way.

Ridder threw for 347 yards last week while Young hit only 13 of his 36 pass attempts for 137 yards.

The forecast has rain and some wind, so while Ridder has some scrambling ability and a stronger arm, Young will be challenged again.

Atlanta receivers Drake London (10 catches) and Kyle Pitts (a touchdown reception!) are finding their form.

The play: Tease Falcons down to -2.5 (-148 at FanDuel).

PROP CORNER

Rachaad White, the talented Tampa Bay running back, had success last week in a 29-25 win over Atlanta, and has posted rushing totals of 100, 81 and 102 yards over the past three games.

The Bucs are on the road for the second consecutive week, this time at Green Bay, and face an angry group of Packers.

There isn’t much fear from the Packers regarding QB Baker Mayfield, so there should be added focus on the ground game.

The Bucs’ rushing success recently can be seen as a bit of a mirage, too, as they are better than only two NFL teams in rush success rate and were 24th in EPA per rush entering Week 15.

White is due for regression and, after 45 carries the past two games, he’s likely to see fewer carries as well. The number was 81.5 early Thursday but had been bet down to 80.5 by Thursday afternoon.

Prop play: Buccaneers RB Rachaad White under 80.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM, FanDuel).

– Field Level Media

NFL Saturday 2023

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CINCINNATI – The first NFL Saturday schedule of 2023 starts with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Minnesota Vikings (1:00pm EST), but the two nightcaps promise to be playoff-deciding football, especially for the four participating teams, all (7-6) on the season or better.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6): A wildcard intersection might become a postseason off-ramp for the loser of this game depending on how dominoes fall Sunday. The Colts lost for the first time since the end of October last week at Cincinnati and cracks are starting to appear in the run defense. Indianapolis has been hit for at least 125 rushing yards in six of the past seven games. Pittsburgh, what with a backup quarterback and milquetoast offense, is primed to deploy a ground-and-pound approach using a conservative running game to back the Steelers’ stout defense. Indianapolis won’t have top back Jonathan Taylor (thumb) again, but the combination of Gardner Minshew and WR Michael Pittman Jr. has been filthy. Pittman has at least eight receptions in six consecutive games.

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Denver Broncos (7-6) at Detroit Lions (9-4): Sean Payton brought the Broncos back from the brink of self-combustion by lending a stronger voice to defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. Denver has a string of eight consecutive games holding opponents to 22 or fewer points with 18 takeaways in the past seven games and 15 sacks in the past three. Lions coach Dan Campbell sees the dashboard warning lights, but believes the easy fix to most of what ails Detroit is the turnover battle. The return of safety CJ Gardner-Johnson should spark the secondary, but more consistent play from QB Jared Goff has been the focus for Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Goff threw two picks and was sacked four times in the Lions’ loss at Chicago last week.

NFL Week 15 Props

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FOXBORO – (Staff and Wire Service Reports) With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, all 32 teams have had their byes and a full slate of games is on the docket through Week 18.

There are plenty of options on the board if you’re shopping for player props.

Here are three we like on Sunday.

–Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
The emergence of Isiah Pacheco relegated Edwards-Helaire to a backup role in the Chiefs’ running back pecking order. However, Edwards-Helaire did get a chance to start in Week 14 against the Bills, as Pacheco was inactive due to a shoulder injury.

Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly convincing, rushing for 39 yards on 11 carries. His 3.5 yards per carry matched his season mark, perhaps suggesting that this is as good as it will get with the backup running back.

Edwards-Helaire couldn’t get much going against a Bills team that ranks 18th in the FTN Network’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Next up for the Chiefs is a Patriots defense that sits atop the league using the same metric.

Given how the Chiefs run their offense, ranking 26th with a run play rate of 38.7%, I question whether there are enough carries for Edwards-Helaire to go over this prop.

–Ezekiel Elliott under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Elliott is coming off a season-high 22 carries, he ran for just 3.1 yards per carry. He was more effective out of the backfield, with 72 receiving yards on seven receptions.

I’ll expect him to regress to the mean against a Chiefs team that will be in a foul mood following their 20-17 home loss to the Bills.

Questions continue to linger about Kansas City’s wide receiver group, which has been underperforming despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City can get right against this Patriots pass defense that ranks 24th in Nfelo’s expected points added (EPA) metric.

Part of Elliott’s increase in usage in Week 14 might have more to do with how the game played out, given that New England jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and held on for a 21-18 victory.

The Patriots are likely to be chasing the game against the Chiefs, making them less likely to prioritize a rushing attack with Elliott staying under his attempts prop.

–Mitch Trubisky over 4.5 rushing attempts (+114 at DraftKings)
At 7-6, the Steelers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC. Seating could change quickly given that four teams with identical records remain in the hunt for one of the three wild-card spots.

Pittsburgh is currently on a two-game losing streak and won’t have starting quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle injury. The Steelers will turn to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky when they desperately need a win to snap a two-game losing streak.

Thus, it’s imperative that the Steelers put together a strategy that suits Trubisky’s skillset. That game plan should include rolling Trubisky out of the pocket and calling some designed run plays for the quarterback.

His lone start this season was last week, and he carried the ball eight times. He’s had two other games where he didn’t start but took roughly half of the quarterback snaps and finished with three carries in each contest.

If Trubisky can play the entire game, I expect him to use his legs and go over this rushing prop. Note that this Colts defense can be vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in both EPA and DVOA.

–Field Level Media

Raiders Set Franchise Record

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LAS VEGAS – (Staff and Wire Service Report) –  Raiders reserve QB Aidan O’Connell threw for four touchdowns in the first half Thursday night and Las Vegas set an Oakland/LA/Las Vegas franchise record for most points in a game in a 63-21 evisceration of the Los Angeles Chargers in Vegas.

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O’Connell completed 20 of 34 passes for 248 yards as Las Vegas improved to 6-8, keeping its slim AFC wild-card hopes alive. Los Angeles fell to 5-9 with its fifth loss in six games, clinching a losing season in a year when some picked it to win the Super Bowl.

It was a complete 180-degree turn for the Raiders, who were shut out on Sunday in a dreary 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota. But they roared out to a 42-0 halftime lead Thursday and never looked back, dropping their AFC West rivals to last place in the division.

Zamir White initiated scoring at the 8:10 mark of the first quarter with a 1-yard run, then O’Connell went to work. He found Tre Tucker for a 30-yard touchdown pass with 4:41 left, then made it 21-0 with a 22-yard connection to Jakobi Meyers. Both came right after Chargers turnovers.

Los Angeles put the game away in the second quarter. O’Connell cashed in a fumbled punt two plays later, hitting Michael Mayer for an 11-yard touchdown pass with 9:15 remaining.

Brandon Bolden ran 26 yards for a score at the 3:50 mark, and O’Connell hooked up with Tucker for a 20-yard touchdown 31 seconds before the half ended.

The Raiders made it 49-0 on their first possession of the second half as Meyers flipped a 3-yard scoring strike to Davante Adams. Their defense got into the act for their last two touchdowns as John Jenkins returned a fumble 44 yards and Jack Jones lugged an interception 16 yards.

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick, who made his first start in place of Justin Herbert (finger), hit on 23 of 32 attempts for 257 yards with three second-half touchdowns, including a 79-yard strike to Joshua Palmer.

–Field Level Media

NFL: Rooney Sportsmanship Finalists

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NEW YORK – (Staff and Wire Service Report from Official News Release) – The eight finalists for the 2023 Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award, given annually to an NFL player who best demonstrates the qualities of on-field sportsmanship, were announced Thursday by the league.

The finalists are:

AFC:

Defensive end Maxx Crosby (Las Vegas)

Linebacker Khalil Mack (Los Angeles Chargers)

Linebacker C.J. Mosley (New York Jets)

Guard Kevin Zeitler (Baltimore)

NFC:

Safety Budda Baker (Arizona)

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk (San Francisco)

Quarterback Dak Prescott (Dallas)

Linebacker Bobby Wagner (Seattle)

A four-member panel from the NFL Legends Community whittled the list of 32 NFL team nominees to eight. Voting for the winner will be done on the Pro Bowl ballot.

The award was created in 2014 and named for Art Rooney Sr., the late founding owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

“Each nominee has displayed the character of Mr. Rooney’s legacy,” said former Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, a member of the panel. “The award represents teamwork, competitiveness, hard work and integrity while on the field.”

–Field Level Media

NBC Opts for Eagle Over Michaels

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NEW YORK – (Staff and Wire Service Report) -NBC plans to use 26-year-old Noah Eagle as the play-by-play voice for its No. 2 NFL playoff broadcast crew in January, passing on venerable voice Al Michaels.

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NBC “Sunday Night Football” tandem Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth have the call of the network’s primary playoff broadcast next month, but NBC declined to bring back Michaels for the second game. Instead, the college football broadcast team of Eagle and Todd Blackledge with sideline reporter Kathryn Tappen was assigned the No. 2 game.

Michaels, 79, reportedly earns $1 million per game in an agreement with Amazon that affords him the opportunity to accept assignments from NBC in his “emeritus” label granted when he left at the end of his last contract in 2022.

Michaels and Tony Dungy called the AFC wild-card game in Jacksonville last year, when the Jaguars rallied from a 27-point deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers.

Eagle is the son of Ian Eagle, an established play-by-play announcer for CBS, TBS and TNT, working college basketball, NBA and NFL games. Noah Eagle replaced Ian Eagle on YES Network NBA broadcasts this season.

Noah Eagle, Blackledge and Tappen are also assigned to the NBC regular-season broadcast of Steelers-Bengals on Dec. 23 and the Nickelodeon kid-focused broadcast of Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11.

Michaels has been the voice of primetime NFL coverage since 1986, first on “Monday Night Football” until he took the “Sunday Night Football” job alongside John Madden in 2006. He worked in the SNF role until the end of the 2021 season.

He currently calls Thursday night games streamed on Amazon Prime Video with analyst Kirk Herbstreit.

–Field Level Media

Niners In the NFL Playoffs

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SAN FRANCISCO – (Staff and Wire Service Report) -Welcome to the 2023 playoffs, San Francisco 49ers. And don’t look now, but howdy to New York Giants and Chicago Bears, both just one game out in an overflowing NFC wild-card chase.

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San Francisco (10-3) stands as the No. 1 seed in the NFC entering Week 15. The 49ers received the initial entry into the NFL postseason by virtue of the Giants’ win over the Green Bay Packers on Monday night.

The 49ers have the same record as the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco beat both teams in head-to-head matchups and can secure the NFC West division title this weekend.

Green Bay is one of five 6-7 teams in the NFC and holds the seventh and final playoff spot in the conference through 13 games.

Right behind the Packers are the Giants and Bears — 5-8 entering Week 15 — and still very much alive while also currently looking at top 10 draft picks based on their 2023 record. Chicago and Green Bay play in the regular-season finale Week 18 at Soldier Field.

The Baltimore Ravens (10-3) are alone in first place in the AFC following the loss by the Miami Dolphins (9-4) on Monday night to the Tennessee Titans.

Kansas City (8-5) and Jacksonville (8-5) lead their respective divisions by narrow margins to currently sit No. 3 (Chiefs) and No. 4 (Jaguars) in the conference.

At No. 5 are the Cleveland Browns (8-5), a game up on the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) and Indianapolis Colts (7-6).

The Colts play the Steelers on Saturday and Cleveland hosts the Bears.

Three teams with 6-7 records are angling for position in the NFC South. Tampa Bay, outscored 270-262 this season, is 5-4 in the NFC and own head-to-head victories of the Minnesota Vikings (7-6) and Bears with a trip to Lambeau Field to play the Packers this week.

–Field Level Media

NFL: Monday Night Football Preview

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Tennessee Titans (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (9-3): Tennessee has two wins since Oct. 1, and the Dolphins have two losses in the same span. The Titans have seven losses in which they scored 16 points or fewer. Miami has a 70-point outing and has put up less than 17 points once in 12 games. The Titans have 20 offensive touchdowns in 2023. The Dolphins have 22 rushing touchdowns and 25 passing touchdowns. The Titans have a healthy Derrick Henry, which gives them a chance to execute a ball-possession plan to limit Miami’s offensive opportunities. Henry was over 100 yards with two touchdowns last week when he was sent to the locker room and didn’t return. Henry insists he’s ready to roll for Monday’s visit to Miami. The Dolphins have won three in a row with 99 total points and have a firm grip on the AFC East.

Green Bay Packers (6-6) at New York Giants (4-8): Tommy DeVito kept the starting QB job even with Tyrod Taylor returning from a rib injury after leading back-to-back wins to give the Giants a reasonable chance to finish with a winning record. New York’s offense isn’t a big-play machine, relying instead on RB Saquon Barkley — 865 yards from scrimmage — and a collection of wide receivers without a lead option since losing TE Darren Waller to a hamstring injury last month. The Packers are a different story with Jordan Love coming up clutch to win three consecutive games, steering Green Bay back into the playoff picture. Green Bay’s third-down offense (44 percent conversions) and the emergence of rookie WR Jayden Reed, one of three Packers’ receivers with five or more TDs, has helped cover in the absence of injured RB Aaron Jones. The Packers last allowed more than 24 points Sept. 28 at Detroit (34-20 loss). The Giants have scored more than 17 points once — 31 at Washington on Nov. 19 — since Sept. 17.

–Field Level Media

Cowboys Kick the %#@& Out of Eagles

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DALLAS – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – Surging Dallas QB Dak Prescott threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns, Brandon Aubrey converted several extra-long field goals and the Dallas Cowboys got revenge on the NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles 33-13 on Sunday night in Arlington, Texas.

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Prescott completed 24 of 39 throws to help the Cowboys (10-3) win their fifth straight. They have not lost since the Eagles beat them 28-23 in Philadelphia on Nov. 5. Now the rivals are tied atop the division standings with four games to play.

Tight end Jake Ferguson led Dallas in receiving with five catches for 72 yards. CeeDee Lamb had six receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown.

Aubrey hit from 60, 59, 45 and 50 yards, becoming the first kicker in NFL history to make two field goals of 59 yards or longer in one game.

Jalen Hurts finished 18-of-27 passing for 197 yards for the Eagles (10-3), with A.J. Brown accounting for nine catches and 94 yards.

The Eagles lost three fumbles and committed 10 penalties for 95 yards in their second straight loss. In consecutive weeks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Cowboys combined to outscore Philadelphia 75-32.

Dallas opened the game with a methodical 10-play, 75-yard drive. Lamb caught a 13-yard touchdown pass exactly five minutes into the game.

Hurts guided the Eagles to the Dallas 21-yard line, where Donovan Wilson forced and recovered a fumble on a Hurts keeper. On the ensuing drive, Aubrey drilled his 60-yarder for a 10-0 lead that held up at the end of the quarter.

Jake Elliott converted from 52 yards for Philadelphia to cut it to 10-3 before the Cowboys scored touchdowns on their next two drives. First, Rico Dowdle pushed in from the 1-yard line; he was originally ruled short of the goal line before the call was overturned on a challenge.

After Elliott made a 44-yard field goal, the Cowboys sprinted 75 yards in eight plays and 1:28. Prescott hit Brandin Cooks over the top on a 30-yard play to the Eagles’ 1, and from there he connected with Michael Gallup for a touchdown to make it 24-6 at halftime.

Stephon Gilmore stripped Brown of the football and recovered it early in the third quarter.

Philadelphia capitalized on a fumble the other way when Fletcher Cox strip-sacked Prescott and Jalen Carter finished off a 42-yard scoop-and-score.

But Dallas’ next possession culminated in Aubrey’s 59-yard field goal. Aubrey, a rookie who played in the USFL before signing with Dallas, added the 45- and 50-yarders in the fourth quarter and improved to 8-for-8 on field goals 50 yards or longer.

The Eagles got to the red zone one more time, but Markquese Bell caused DeVonta Smith to fumble to prevent them from drawing any closer.

–Field Level Media