While We’re Young (Ideas) – On the NFL and Much More Important Things
By TERRY LYONS
BOSTON – First things first. The AFC Championship is NOT in Foxboro and the Patriots reportedly are pointing fingers at coach Bill Belichick, his assistant coaches and each other on the reasons why. The tail end of that sentence clearly answers the front end declaration. It’s time for a shake-up at Gillette and the re-hiring of Bill O’Brien will not be enough.
O’Brien returned to New England after a two-year stint as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama. O’Brien also had brief stints at Penn State as head coach in 2012-13 and a longer run with the head coach of the Houston Texans from 2014-20.
While the Patriots’ defense ranked No. 9 in Opponent Yards per Game and 11th in points allowed per game, it’s certainly the offensive side of the football that needs work. Looking at Special Teams, the Patriots ranked a league worst, according to ESPN’s DVOA (Defense adjusted-Value Over Average) and, the Patriots finished the 2022-23 NFL season at No. 16 in scoring and No. 26 in Yards per Game. Only Indianapolis, Chicago, Carolina, Tennessee, Houston and the LA Rams fared worse on gaining yards. In 3rd Down conversions, New England ranked No. 27 (of 32 NFL teams).
Belichick quickly addressed the issue, hiring O’Brien before the NFC/AFC Championship weekend. That will fill about 25% of the Patriots’ overall hole. The other 75% is on the players – the players on offense.
An interview with Captain Obvious floats the rumors the New York Jets will attempt to acquire longtime Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers just as they did in acquiring Green Bay’s Brett Favre in 2008. The Favre experiment lasted one season. Rodgers? Maybe two, but the trade would put New England at the bottom of the AFC East ladder predictions come September. (In 2022, New England (8-9) barely bested the J-E-T-S (7-10).
For New England, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, a 1,000+ yard rusher in 2022 will have high expectations as a 25-year old come 2023. RB Damien Harris spells Stevenson nicely, so the concentration for Belichick and O’Brien will be elsewhere.
Quarterback Mac Jones with his 84.9 QB rating over 14 games started in ‘22 will be in a make-it-or-break-it season. Bailey Zappe, who will turn 24 in April, is the No. 2 who will never be compared with Josh Allen of Buffalo or Patrick Mahomes of the KC Chiefs.
The NE receiving corps were abysmal. Jacobi Meyers (804 yards on 67 receptions); DeVante Parker (539 yards on 31 receptions); Kendrick Bourne (434 on 35) and tight end Henry Hunter (509 yards on 41 receptions) didn’t get the job done. Meyers had six TDs and the next three combined for six. The Patriots’ braintrust will need to beef up the WRs and TEs either through the free agency market or draft.
It won’t be until the WRs improve that any blame can be placed upon the shoulders of Mac Jones. Unless a minor miracle is performed at Patriot Place, Jones will be the started QB for 2023.
In the NFL Draft (April 27-29), the Patriots will seek help for the offensive line and for a deep-threat wide receiver. Of course Belichick never remains shy if there’s a top-notch corner available when the Patriots pick at No. 14.
That Patriots forecast leads us to Sunday’s NFC (SF 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles) and AFC (Cincinnati Bengals at KC Chiefs) Championship, arguably the best day of the year on the NFL schedule, unless you enjoy endless, two-week long pregame hype and endless $7-million dollar TV ads.
For those who enjoy a trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl or the first Thursday/Friday of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, next time, try the NFC/AFC doubleheader which comes along with lesser crowding, better games and some decent regular season hoops (College and NBA) games on Saturday.
From this armchair, the kiss of death for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals is that every talking head, every handicapper, former players, known sports gamblers – everybody – is picking a Philadelphia vs Cincinnati Super Bowl.
The lines as of Jan 28th – roughly 24 hours before kick-off:
- Eagles (-2.5) over 49ers
- Chiefs (-1.5) over Bengals
The pontificating pigskin public first saw the Eagles at (-1.5) while the Chiefs were getting (+1) on the opening.
The O/U for the Niners v Eagles opened at (45.5) and stands at (46.0).
The O/U for the Bengals at Chiefs opened at (46.5) and is up to (48).
Call me crazy, I like the Niners getting 2.5 and would not be afraid of the (+130) ML while I really like the KC Chiefs. Rumor has it a lot of “sharp” money came in on KC early.
KC will do or die by their secondary coverage of WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. I think KC can keep Chase under wraps, maybe a TD. Higgins can be the deciding factor as Cincy QB Joe Burrows will hit the open man. RB Joe Mixon on short screens could be a factor more so than via his straight run game.
The emergence of RB Isiah Pacheco for the Chiefs and the sure-fire, can’t stop it QB Patrick Mahomes to TE Travis Kelce will be enough to guide the Chiefs at Arrowhead. That said, a re-injury to Mahomes’ high ankle sprain would be disastrous for KC.
For SF, it’s all about Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers’ solid defense to match Philly. Any wavering by the Eagles in the first half will bring the pressure of the “Linc” down upon a playoff inexperienced roster. The Niners will need (at least) six points from their defense.
It’s kick-off time at 3:00pm (ET) (FOX) at Philly and roughly 6:30pm, call it 7:00pm if the game runs long, at Kansas City on CBS.
HERE NOW, THE NOTES: The NBA announced that they’ll pick sides for the annual NBA All-Star Game right before the game begins. Besides watching the Consumer Products guys flip-out providing proper jerseys and numbers and the Courtside stat inputter have a canary typing in the players/teams into the computers, it should make for a lot of fun.
The bad news, it should result in more “three point shots” being chucked-up as the coaches won’t even have a single practice to put in a few offensive sets to run. The talent of the NBA players will rise when the coaches put in some offense being run by nearly every team, but may God bless the point guards if they can organize any kind of half-court game.
The knee-jerk when the offenses aren’t in sync is for the ball to go up from three-point-land in the Mike D’Antoni style of “Seven Seconds of Less.” That concept calls for a shot to go up before the defense gets back. In other words, get the shot when the 24-second shot clock reads … 18-17. Last February, Steph Curry hit (16) three-pointers, shooting 16-of-27 from behind the arc. He had 50 points.
The number(s) to beat are (90) attempts by Team LeBron in 2019 when the game had a record (167) three-point field goal attempts. Sheesh.
TID-BITS: A copy of “How Basketball Can Save the World,” by David Hollander magically appeared in the mailbox of WWYI on Friday. Funny how that happens, isn’t it? Upon a quick flip today, the book looks like a job very well done. I can’t wait to find time to delve deep and read every syllable, then re-read it all again. First thought was that the book should be REQUIRED reading for every collegiate Sociology and Sports Business Management class in the world. More to come.
They call them “The Joker(s)” because American fans have trouble pronouncing Denver Nuggets’ MVP candidate Nikola Jokic or tennis great Novak Djokovic who will face “the Greek Tzatziki” in Stefanos Tsitsipas at 3:30am (ET) this morning. Set your alarm clock or your iPhone alarms.
QUARTERLY REPORT: As will be the custom – as often as a quarterly basis, the investment wing of WWYI Enterprises will reveal its most recent plays in the market. Some are successful while others are not. We tip our hat and tap our ice hockey sticks to our mentor in the investment world, Ralph Kramden. Old Ralph boy made significant investments in a few beauties. Here are just a few:
- No Cal Pizza
- A Parking Lot Next to the Movie Theatre (How would he know it was a Drive-In)?
- The Handy Housewife Helper (MUST WATCH here)
Here’s our Quarterly Portfolio:
- Sizable Investment in a new Theatrical Show: Chartreuse Man Group
- 10,000 Shares in: The Fire-and-Brimstone Tire Company
- 100,000 Shares in: The Lava Fence (*clinical trial failed in Hawaii)
- Controlling interest in Oscar Madison Square Garden Network
ONE SMALL STEP FOR HOMA, ONE GIANT LEAP for the PGA TOUR: Did you see the clip of PGA Tour pro Max Homa walking toward his ball on the 13th hole at Torrey Pines? If not, watch this and I’ll pick it up “on the other side.”
First, let’s credit Max Homa for his participation and willingness to do an interview DURING his round of professional golf.
Secondly, credit the top notch interview skills of newly crowned golf commentator Trevor Immelman who made his CBS lead commentator debut this week. Add, equal praise for both Ian Baker-Finch and Frank Nobilo. With all three, the line of questioning was perfect for both a 1-handicap or a newcomer to the game of golf.
With the pressure applied to the PGA Tour by the LIV golf circuit, there will be more and more interaction with the PGA Tour players during their rounds, in addition to the usual before or after. It seems the players, as a group, realize the stakes have been raised and this is the time to forge cooperation with the Tour’s network partners.
Meanwhile, LIV Golf settled for a US television deal with the CW Network and moved their final event from Miami to Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) to take place November 3-5 – a good two months after the PGA Tour crowns its FEDEx CUP champion at the TOUR Championship to be played at East Lake in Atlanta (before the NFL season kicks-off).
WE LOVE THE TEAM VALUATIONS, HERE’s to the EPL:
Again, tip of the cap to our friends at Sportico for the hard work that goes into making these valuations, here’s the list of the Top 5 English Premier League clubs:
- Manchester United – $5.95 billion
- Liverpool – $4.71 billion
- Manchester City – $4.43 billion
- Arsenal – $3.6 billion
- Chelsea – $3.47 billion
The “average” Major League Soccer (MLS) franchise is worth $582 million. Not too shabby.
Parting Words
I DO NOT know where to start, so I’ll wing it on a topic far too important to take lightly. Better said, I’ll just try to do my best:
It wasn’t until about 2008 or so when I really learned there are some bad people in this everyday world, all with a single common denominator of evil overtaking them and their minds and actions. It’s prevalent in every single workplace, every field, every industry, in every single corner of the earth. Why? I do not know.
It took me 48 years to understand it and much was taught to me by my friend and former NBA colleague, Bob Delaney, who faced certain evils as a New Jersey State Trooper at the ripe age of 23, as he went undercover to try to bust up a major crime syndicate on the Jersey side of the Hudson. He wrote of it in his book, COVERT, recently re-printed as demand continued for a good true-crime book. Bob stressed they were just a bunch of “regular guys” who would bump off a delivery truck on the way to attend a First Holy Communion ceremony and then meet-up with each other for a Sunday family party.
Yes, I had heard about it. Yes, I had watched it unfold but as psuedo-comedy shows or motion pictures, such as “The Sopranos” or “Goodfellas.” I’d never heard it “live” like we saw on tape from a light pole in Memphis Friday night.
We – at the NBA – had a criminal rogue referee betray all we had done in our basketball lives, a wonderful force of like-minded people were all spreading the basketball gospel. Until THUD. A ref and his high school ‘friends” betting on the games. “GUILTY,” said the Judge.
“There are bad guys everywhere,” said Delaney to me as I was shaken to the core by someone who would undermine our game and all the work that was put-in over the years.
That basketball moment was important to me at the time, but this… this disgrace in Memphis … this total undermining of the entire law enforcement society built to protect us all … is disgusting and CRIMINAL.
Yes, I believe in the “innocent until proven guilty by a jury of your peers,” but damn, it’s on tape.
So, let the justice system do its job. The big Blue Shield has been exposed once again, evil overtaking the good of all the people of Memphis. The people who need their police to protect them, not kick them to death.
It burns me (and everyone on the right side of the law) up. It undermines and disappoints us to the highest degree possible.
What’s left? What can we do other than to pray for the people of Memphis, for the deceased (Mr. Tyre Nichols) and his family. Pray for peace and justice in Memphis at this precise time in our nation’s sorely blemished history.
Pray for healing. It’s not the answer but simply a remedy for the growing illness of evil.