By TERRY LYONS, Editor-in-Chief
BOSTON – C’mon now, admit it. Every year, after you fill-out your very own NCAA March Madness college basketball bracket, you’re absolutely sure you’ve got them all right. Every single pick looks perfect. Although the odds of picking the correct winning team in each tournament game are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (that’s one in 9.2 quintillion), you’re sure this is the year for perfection.
You watched the NCAA Selection Show on CBS Sports and made note of every word uttered by the magnificent Greg Gumbel, who along with his expert commentators – Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis – made quick decisions on the fate of 68 NCAA basketball tournament teams hailing from every corner of the United States of America.
Upon conclusion of the Selection Show, you grabbed the remote to switch from CBS to ESPN so you could learn what Dickie V (Vitale) and Jay Bilashave to say. While Dickie V entertained us from his basement in Lakewood Ranch, Bilas scoured his memory and notes for tiny sound bytes about great defensive schemes and tough match-ups in the first round.
Let’s dig in deeper for 2021, after all, it’s been nearly two years since we last filled out our brackets.
The No. 1 seeds look unbeatable, don’t they? It seems that a No. 16 vs a No. 1 upset is nearly impossible this year as No. 1 overall Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois and Michigan were the top four teams in the Associated Press and college coaches poll rankings with the ‘Zags garnering every single No. 1 vote. Gonzaga is everyone’s pick to win it all and rightfully so with their (26-0) record and big time head coach in Mark Few. Gonzaga, the school Utah Jazz guard and USA Dream Teamer John Stockton put on the map when he was the West Coast Conference Player of the Year in 1984, went wire-to-wire as the nation’s No. 1 college basketball team this season.
Now – QUICK!
Name three players from the Gonzaga team.
Okay, I’ll spot you All-American first-teamer Corey Kispert as the 6-7 senior led the Zags in scoring at 19.2 ppm., slightly ahead of 6-10 sophomore forward Drew Timme (18.7). Freshman guard Jalen Suggs is pretty good, too. Wouldn’t you say?
You can take it from there. Here’s the full Gonzaga team roster with stats. And, here’s a full website of information, compiled by an army of SIDs in Spokane, Washington. Knock ‘em dead at the Virtual Zoom/Skype/WebEx water-cooler with your Gonzaga knowledge.
Now, before you fill-out your 2021 NCAA bracket, wouldn’t you like to join me in the same exercise for Baylor? Michigan? Illinois? Then, we can look at the No. 2s which are really no different than the No. 1s, except they face a potential match-up of a No. 3 rather than a No. 4.
Iowa, Alabama, The Ohio State University and Houston earned the No. 2 seeds this year and then the overall quality of clubs fell off to No. 3s in – Kansas, Texas, Arkansas and West Virginia. Hell? West Virginia went 18-9 and grabbed the No. 10 overall seed in this tournament.
In March, alone, West Virginia lost their last two games of the season to Oklahoma State (20-8, a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional, and the 15th overall seed in the tournament). On March 2, West Virginia lost a heartbreaker to Baylor, 94-89 in OT. Suffice to say, the tenth best team in the land is really not that great as this tournament begins.
Yet the beauty of March Madness is just that! As sure as I type these words, West Virginia and their lovable, huggable head coach in Bob Huggins can “march” all the way to the Final Four in a one and done, survive and advance format that has an important and very unique nuance for COVID-19+ 2021 – no travel. Every game is in the basketball-loving State of Indiana, most to be played in downtown Indianapolis.
The bracket gurus offered some advice in picking a perfect bracket or, at least, winning a pool of bracket-filling friends, using the ESPN Tournament Challenge or a.k.a. Bracketville. Here are a few others things to consider.
Helpful Hints for Success:
- Don’t even think of doing the No. 16 vs No. 1 thing.
- Don’t pick ALL No. 1s into your Final Four
- Don’t go too far extreme either as there’s only been two years since 1985 when the Final Four was played without a No. 1 seed in the building.
- One No. 1 seed has advanced (41%), while two No. 1s have advanced (38%) of the time since the 64+ team era of Bracketville.
- Examine the No. 12s vs No. 5s. Since ‘85, those pesky No. 12s have upset No. 5 a whopping (34.6%) and even better, No. 11s have upset No. 6s (37.5%) and No. 10s have upset No. 7s in (38.2%) of the NCAA Tournament games.
- Chances are – the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball championship team will be a No. 1, a No. 2 or maybe a No. 3 seed.
Do you see that Hugs?
While the First Four screwed-up the more traditional Bracket Mania and a Noon deadline on Thursday, this year the First Four is Thursday evening from Mackey Arena in beautiful West Lafayette (Purdue) or Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, (Indiana U.) – rather than the usual and popular Dayton, Ohio setting.
Lastly, if you’re looking to pick those perennial favorites, like Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, Notre Dame, Davidson, Indiana, Temple (fifth all-time winningest program), St. John’s (ninth all-time winningest program), or Arizona, look no further.
They’re all watching the 2021 tournament on TV, just like you.
And, we’ll get more into that on Sunday.