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Archives for December 15, 2023

NFL Week 15 Props

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FOXBORO – (Staff and Wire Service Reports) With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, all 32 teams have had their byes and a full slate of games is on the docket through Week 18.

There are plenty of options on the board if you’re shopping for player props.

Here are three we like on Sunday.

–Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
The emergence of Isiah Pacheco relegated Edwards-Helaire to a backup role in the Chiefs’ running back pecking order. However, Edwards-Helaire did get a chance to start in Week 14 against the Bills, as Pacheco was inactive due to a shoulder injury.

Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly convincing, rushing for 39 yards on 11 carries. His 3.5 yards per carry matched his season mark, perhaps suggesting that this is as good as it will get with the backup running back.

Edwards-Helaire couldn’t get much going against a Bills team that ranks 18th in the FTN Network’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Next up for the Chiefs is a Patriots defense that sits atop the league using the same metric.

Given how the Chiefs run their offense, ranking 26th with a run play rate of 38.7%, I question whether there are enough carries for Edwards-Helaire to go over this prop.

–Ezekiel Elliott under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Elliott is coming off a season-high 22 carries, he ran for just 3.1 yards per carry. He was more effective out of the backfield, with 72 receiving yards on seven receptions.

I’ll expect him to regress to the mean against a Chiefs team that will be in a foul mood following their 20-17 home loss to the Bills.

Questions continue to linger about Kansas City’s wide receiver group, which has been underperforming despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City can get right against this Patriots pass defense that ranks 24th in Nfelo’s expected points added (EPA) metric.

Part of Elliott’s increase in usage in Week 14 might have more to do with how the game played out, given that New England jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and held on for a 21-18 victory.

The Patriots are likely to be chasing the game against the Chiefs, making them less likely to prioritize a rushing attack with Elliott staying under his attempts prop.

–Mitch Trubisky over 4.5 rushing attempts (+114 at DraftKings)
At 7-6, the Steelers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC. Seating could change quickly given that four teams with identical records remain in the hunt for one of the three wild-card spots.

Pittsburgh is currently on a two-game losing streak and won’t have starting quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle injury. The Steelers will turn to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky when they desperately need a win to snap a two-game losing streak.

Thus, it’s imperative that the Steelers put together a strategy that suits Trubisky’s skillset. That game plan should include rolling Trubisky out of the pocket and calling some designed run plays for the quarterback.

His lone start this season was last week, and he carried the ball eight times. He’s had two other games where he didn’t start but took roughly half of the quarterback snaps and finished with three carries in each contest.

If Trubisky can play the entire game, I expect him to use his legs and go over this rushing prop. Note that this Colts defense can be vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in both EPA and DVOA.

–Field Level Media

Raiders Set Franchise Record

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LAS VEGAS – (Staff and Wire Service Report) –  Raiders reserve QB Aidan O’Connell threw for four touchdowns in the first half Thursday night and Las Vegas set an Oakland/LA/Las Vegas franchise record for most points in a game in a 63-21 evisceration of the Los Angeles Chargers in Vegas.

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O’Connell completed 20 of 34 passes for 248 yards as Las Vegas improved to 6-8, keeping its slim AFC wild-card hopes alive. Los Angeles fell to 5-9 with its fifth loss in six games, clinching a losing season in a year when some picked it to win the Super Bowl.

It was a complete 180-degree turn for the Raiders, who were shut out on Sunday in a dreary 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota. But they roared out to a 42-0 halftime lead Thursday and never looked back, dropping their AFC West rivals to last place in the division.

Zamir White initiated scoring at the 8:10 mark of the first quarter with a 1-yard run, then O’Connell went to work. He found Tre Tucker for a 30-yard touchdown pass with 4:41 left, then made it 21-0 with a 22-yard connection to Jakobi Meyers. Both came right after Chargers turnovers.

Los Angeles put the game away in the second quarter. O’Connell cashed in a fumbled punt two plays later, hitting Michael Mayer for an 11-yard touchdown pass with 9:15 remaining.

Brandon Bolden ran 26 yards for a score at the 3:50 mark, and O’Connell hooked up with Tucker for a 20-yard touchdown 31 seconds before the half ended.

The Raiders made it 49-0 on their first possession of the second half as Meyers flipped a 3-yard scoring strike to Davante Adams. Their defense got into the act for their last two touchdowns as John Jenkins returned a fumble 44 yards and Jack Jones lugged an interception 16 yards.

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick, who made his first start in place of Justin Herbert (finger), hit on 23 of 32 attempts for 257 yards with three second-half touchdowns, including a 79-yard strike to Joshua Palmer.

–Field Level Media

Home Style: Celtics Defeat Cavs

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BOSTON – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – The Boston Celtics look to beat a second straight opponent that has given them recent trouble as the Orlando Magic come in Friday night for the first of two games in three days between the teams. It may be only mid-December, but the series could have a big impact on the final Eastern Conference playoff picture as first-place Boston’s lead on Orlando — which is tied for third with Philadelphia — is just two games.

The Celtics are coming off sweeping Cleveland in another two-games-in-three-days set, beating the Cavaliers 120-113 on Tuesday and 116-107 on Thursday after Boston went 1-3 against Cleveland last season.

The wins moved Boston to 12-0 at home this season, but coach Joe Mazzulla knows his team’s mindset should not change regardless of where the games are played.

“We have to be able to play, regardless of circumstances,” he said, “and I think we’re starting to learn and not be defined by that.”

Jayson Tatum had double-doubles in the back-to-back wins against Cleveland, including 27 points and 11 rebounds on Thursday. Jaylen Brown, who was originally questionable due to a left ankle injury, added 18 of his 22 points in a hot first half.

Teammate Derrick White feels it’s about more than just stats for the star duo, who paced Boston’s 50.6 percent shooting.

“They do so much night in and night out that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet,” White said. “We’re thankful to have them.”

Similar to Cleveland, Orlando recently has had the upper hand in its series against Boston, winning four consecutive matchups dating to last December.

“I get it because we’re the Celtics and we’re supposed to win it every single year that there’s expectations of, ‘Yeah, two or three teams will give you (a hard time) but everyone else will be easy,’ and that’s just not the case,” Mazzulla said. “That’s not the NBA.”

Orlando’s streak of head-to-head success against Boston continued into this season with a 113-96 win on Nov. 24.

Moritz Wagner had a game-high 27 points while Tatum posted 26 to lead the Celtics, who shot just 40.8 percent.

The Magic have not allowed 100 points to Boston in three straight meetings, while their two most recent opponents — Detroit last Friday and Cleveland on Monday — were each held under 95.

“I think you continue to preach exactly what you know travels, which is defense,” Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley said. “That’s who we are, and that’s what we’ll continue to be about.”

Orlando, which has not made the playoffs since 2020, is 11-2 since Nov. 15. A 104-94 win Monday at home against Cleveland was its second straight after back-to-back losses that ended a nine-game winning streak, the longest in the NBA this season.

Paolo Banchero, who has been Orlando’s leading scorer in two of the past three games, had 20 points and 10 rebounds Monday. He netted 11 as Orlando turned around a halftime deficit in a 30-15 third quarter.

“We don’t want to be the doormat anymore and a team that people talk about as, ‘It’s just the Orlando Magic,'” guard Jalen Suggs said. “We want to be that tough team, and you’ve got to scout and bring full mental energy and physicality when you come play us.”

The Celtics played Thursday without center Luke Kornet, who was a late scratch due to an adductor injury. As a result, Lamar Stevens contributed four points in nine minutes in his first action since Nov. 28.

–Field Level Media

NCAA: Two-Time Transfers Eligible

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CHARLESTON, W VIRGINIA – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – The NCAA has been notifying member schools that two-time transfers will be eligible to participate in their chosen sports, at least temporarily, and bypass the “year in residency” rule.

The change in policy came after a federal judge in Charleston, West Virginia issued a temporary 14-day restraining order against the NCAA, who were denying athletes the chance to compete at their new schools for one year upon second transfer.

The lawsuit was filed by the states of West Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, New York, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee and stated the requirement of two-time transfers to sit out a year violated antitrust law. The state of Ohio was at the forefront of the suit.

The decision applies to all student athletes under NCAA jurisdiction in the United States.

“As a result of today’s decision impacting Division I student-athletes, the Association will not enforce the year in residency requirement for multiple-time transfers and will begin notifying member schools,” the NCAA said in a statement to The Athletic.

 

 

One athlete immediately impacted is West Virginia men’s basketball player RaeQuan Battle, who transferred from Montana State after playing two seasons for the Big Sky school. Battle began his college career playing two seasons for Washington of the Pac-12.

He had applied for a waiver under the NCAA’s mental-health provision but was denied in late October. Wednesday’s ruling will potentially allow Battle to play Saturday when the Mountaineers play UMass in Springfield, Mass.

West Virginia would be happy to see Battle on the court as he averaged 17.7 points last season while leading Montana State to the NCAA Tournament.

 

 

“Very pleased our state-based coalition was able to achieve a temporary restraining order against the NCAA’s transfer rule,” West Virginia attorney general Patrick Morrisey posted on social media. “Big win for RaeQuan Battle!”

A second hearing will be heard when the restraining order expires in two weeks when a preliminary injunction potentially could be issued. That would keep athletes in question eligible until a potential trial takes place.

According to The Athletic’s report, Ohio attorney general Dave Yost said that at least 99 athletes had been denied a waiver to compete immediately upon a second transfer and that another 44 are awaiting a decision on a waiver.

–Field Level Media