LAS VEGAS – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – Holiday shopping season has been a smashing hit.

We found Buffalo and Josh Allen to be profitable last week, along with the Rams (+7.5) taking the Ravens into OT before losing on a punt-return TD (but LA covered!).

Our player prop, Texans QB CJ Stroud under 226.5 passing yards also hit.

This week we’ll go high and low, with a three-team teaser as our main selection.

See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

The big three betting lines:

Dolphins -8.5 vs. Jets
Rams -6.5 vs. Commanders
Chiefs -7.5 at Patriots
(per DraftKings)

We’ve assembled a tasty plus-money three-team teaser, fading the revenge factor while considering one particular facet of the weekend weather.

First, we are teasing the Jets’ number to a whopping +17.5. It’s not because we believe in a Zach Wilson renaissance; rather, it’s that we don’t believe the Dolphins are dramatically better than they showed in Monday night’s upset at the hands of the Tennessee Titans.

Add the weather factor: It’s going to be windy in Miami. Deep throws to Miami speedsters might not be readily available, and the Jets would like to control the clock – similar to the Titans’ scheme.

Next up, the Los Angeles Rams. We can’t quit them. As their collective health improves, so, too, does their record. In another must-win game, LA can’t afford to play carelessly against the wobbly Commanders – but we’ll tease ourselves a little cushion just to be sure.

Finally, we already jumped off the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon and can see others doing the same. The “KC will figure it out” crowd is thinning, and Sunday’s opponent, the Patriots, have nothing to lose (except a prime draft position).

The Chiefs don’t appear to have the hammer anymore. We think the talented Patriots defense can keep this close enough to cover, and hope that Bailey Zappe doesn’t throw a couple of pick-6s.

The bet, a three-team teaser parlay (+105 at DraftKings):

Jets +17.5
Rams +3.5
Patriots +14.5

THEY SAID IT

“It’s tough man. It’s real tough, and all we can do is bounce back and just try to go out there and give everything we have. We’re playing a tough, tough team this next week that plays really good defense.”

– Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the critical Kadarius Toney offside penalty that helped doom KC last week.

BONUS COMBO

Falcons at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Falcons -3, total 34 (FanDuel).

The one feels too easy.

The Falcons need the victory to continue chasing the NFC South title, while the Panthers are in experiment mode under interim head coach Chris Tabor.

The quarterback matchup, Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder vs. Carolina’s Bryce Young, is a mismatch. Momentum is going the Falcons’ way.

Ridder threw for 347 yards last week while Young hit only 13 of his 36 pass attempts for 137 yards.

The forecast has rain and some wind, so while Ridder has some scrambling ability and a stronger arm, Young will be challenged again.

Atlanta receivers Drake London (10 catches) and Kyle Pitts (a touchdown reception!) are finding their form.

The play: Tease Falcons down to -2.5 (-148 at FanDuel).

PROP CORNER

Rachaad White, the talented Tampa Bay running back, had success last week in a 29-25 win over Atlanta, and has posted rushing totals of 100, 81 and 102 yards over the past three games.

The Bucs are on the road for the second consecutive week, this time at Green Bay, and face an angry group of Packers.

There isn’t much fear from the Packers regarding QB Baker Mayfield, so there should be added focus on the ground game.

The Bucs’ rushing success recently can be seen as a bit of a mirage, too, as they are better than only two NFL teams in rush success rate and were 24th in EPA per rush entering Week 15.

White is due for regression and, after 45 carries the past two games, he’s likely to see fewer carries as well. The number was 81.5 early Thursday but had been bet down to 80.5 by Thursday afternoon.

Prop play: Buccaneers RB Rachaad White under 80.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM, FanDuel).

– Field Level Media

The post NFL: Week 15 Primer appeared first on Digital Sports Desk.

CLEVELAND – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – Bye weeks are on the horizon, but with all 32 teams in action this week, another full smorgasbord of prop picks shuffles in along with NFL Week 3. Newer bettors can be overwhelmed by the almost limitless offerings. Viewing your props as merely a derivative of how you expect the game to unfold is critical.

With that strategy in mind, here are our top five player props for Week 3.

Ryan Tannehill over 197.5 passing yards (-118 at FanDuel) Per DVOA metrics, the Browns rank second defensively. However, a big part of their ranking involves the three points allowed the Bengals on a wet day in Cleveland.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had all sorts of problems during the game, and it’s not a stretch to say that he’s nowhere near fully healthy this season due to a lingering calf injury.

In Week 2, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett threw for 222 yards.

FanDuel has a projection under 200 passing yards for Tannehill, and that number is short.

It’s worth noting that according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Tannehill ranks seventh in intended air yards per attempt (8.6 per game), whereas Burrow and Pickett rank 23rd and 24th.

Tyler Allgeier over 40.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM) – The Atlanta Falcons are flying high and off to a 2-0 start. A big part of their success has been the running game behind the duo of Allgeier and Bijan Robinson.

Robinson will get the bulk of the headlines as a first-round rookie, but Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith seems committed to getting Allgeier touches, especially near the goal line.

Interestingly, Allgeier (31) has two more carries than Robinson (29) through two games.

And although Atlanta is tied for first (51%) with Dallas in average run rate, their average margin of victory (+7.5) is 22.5 points less than the Cowboys.

Allgeier posted at least 48 rushing yards in his two games against the Panthers (ninth) and Packers (14th), two teams ranked higher in run defense EPA than the Lions.

Look for the Falcons to continue to share the workload with Allgeier rushing for over 40.5 yards.

Jordan Love over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135 at BetMGM)
Green Bay missed a golden opportunity to stay perfect on the season after blowing a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Falcons.

The 1-1 Packers host New Orleans to take on a Saints team off to a 2-0 start.

New Orleans (+2.0) has the lowest margin of victory of any of the remaining undefeated teams. And according to TeamRankings, the Saints sit third in their luck factor metrics.

We’ve noticed with Green Bay the offense might not always look fluid, but it has been potent inside the red zone — tied for first with an 83.3 percent touchdown conversion rate.

Love ranks fourth (75.2) in the league in Total QBR with six touchdowns on the season and has yet to throw an interception.

Raheem Mostert under 13.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM) – I don’t want to rely on too many overs, which ushers in this play on Mostert receiving yards.

The Dolphins running back had a heavier workload in Week 2, with 18 rushing attempts compared to 10 in the season opener.

Mostert gets the bulk of carries, but Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will continue to use Mostert sparingly in their passing game.

In Week 1, the Dolphins had 466 receiving yards against a Chargers team that ranks 29th in EPA against the pass, and Mostert still finished with two catches for 13 yards.

Miami already has five players with at least 65 receiving yards, and McDaniel said he’s ready to roll out rookie running back De’Von Achane in a more consistent role starting Sunday.

JuJu Smith-Schuster under 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet) – Smith-Schuster signed a three-year deal worth $33 million and signs pointed to the former Steelers and Chiefs receiver playing a major role.

Through two games, he’s averaging just 30.5 receiving yards and has yet to score a touchdown.

A closer look at his NFL Next Gen Stats reveals that Smith-Schuster (-2.1) ranks 97th among 99 players in yards after catch above expectation (YAC +/-) with at least eight targets.

Enter the New York Jets, a team with a strong secondary.

New York ranks 13th in defensive DVOA, and Smith-Schuster will likely line up against Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner.

Per Pro Football Focus, Gardner is tied for 10th in pass coverage with a 79.2 rating.

Despite being tied for second on the team in targets (13), Smith-Schuster is only fifth in total reception yards (61).

Given the matchup with Gardner and this being a divisional game, I like the Patriots wide receiver to stay under 35.5 receiving yards.

The post Props for NFL Week Three appeared first on Digital Sports Desk.