LAS VEGAS – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – (For Information Only) – The NFL landscape has rarely been so uncertain as the season nears its halfway point, and the Tuesday afternoon trade deadline did little to help.

The injury-ravaged Buffalo Bills defense found some help in defensive back Rasul Douglas via trade with Green Bay. The Washington Commanders dealt the heart of their defense, sending Montez Sweat to the Chicago Bears and Chase Young to the San Francisco 49ers, and the Detroit Lions boosted their receiving talent by acquiring Donovan Peoples-Jones from the Cleveland Browns.

The Bears could finish the season owning the first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. They have their own as well as the Carolina Panthers’ first-rounder.

But Young is perhaps the biggest catch among contenders, giving San Francisco another massive boost on defense.

THE SNAPSHOT

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs put in a pedestrian performance last Sunday in a loss to the Denver Broncos, the Philadelphia Eagles have shown vulnerabilities while winning seven of their eight games, and the 49ers have seen the wheels come off over the past three weeks in losses to Cleveland, Minnesota and Cincinnati.

SUPER BOWL WINNER
Top 15 NFL teams per Betting Hero Sources
Chiefs +500
Eagles +500
49ers +600
Dolphins +900
Cowboys +1000
Ravens +1100
Bills +1200
Lions +1300
Bengals +1600
Jaguars +2000
Seahawks +3000
Browns +3300
Chargers +4000
Saints +5000
Jets +6600

San Francisco did itself a huge favor, dealing a third-round pick for Young. This Niners’ front is going to be a problem in December and January.

In the wake of the deal, the 49ers rate as a strong value pick among the top three — that is, if quarterback Brock Purdy solves his recent troubles in a timely manner.

Speaking of a monstrous defensive presence, the Eagles figure to improve as the weather cools. A bet on Philadelphia, which holds the inside track in the race for home-field advantage, could be considered high value at the current number.

The NFC is not overly strong, and the Eagles are a proven postseason commodity.

The Chiefs’ betting attractiveness would be more secure if sports-betting fans knew whether Taylor Swift will be in attendance during the last weeks of the season. (Check Travis Kelce’s “with Tay-Tay” and “without Tay-Tay” stats if you think we’re joking.)

The Bills have to remain under consideration for a play at +1200, if only for their ability to outscore opponents.

Buffalo dumped Miami 48-20 earlier this season.

Douglas, 28, heads to an AFC contender that lacked cornerback depth after Tre’Davious White sustained a torn Achilles and was lost for the season.

Douglas had one interception, one fumble recovery and 32 tackles in seven starts for the Packers (2-5) this season.

The Lions, a similar value to Buffalo at +1300, appear to have a nice path toward winning the NFC North title and picked up offensive depth by acquiring Peoples-Jones.

With Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie standout tight end Sam LaPorta, Lions quarterback Jared Goff has a wealth of targets — not to mention the tough one-two punch from running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Peoples-Jones, 24, has eight catches for 97 yards in seven games this season for the Browns, who selected him in the sixth round of the 2020 draft. He hails from Detroit and played his college football at Michigan.

“We feel like he fits our style,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “He’s smart and he can play multiple positions. … We just felt like he’d be a good fit for the team and the room.”

In four seasons with Cleveland, Peoples-Jones amassed 117 catches for 1,837 yards and eight touchdowns. His best season was 2022, when he finished with 61 catches for 839 yards and three touchdowns.

DOWN-THE-LIST VALUE

The Cincinnati Bengals, now +1600, showed last Sunday that they might be ready to announce their presence once again. A convincing win at San Francisco was more in line with the dangerous team that dominated last season’s second half and reached the AFC title game.

Get the Bengals while they’re still at a high-value number.

The Seahawks are in first place in the NFC West, a half-game ahead of the 49ers. And they’re still +3000 to win it all.

Seattle is tucked away in the Northwest, away from a ton of national scrutiny, but is certainly a stealth contender.

The Seahawks stated their intention by acquiring New York Giants defensive lineman Leonard Williams, a real boost for the run-stopping prowess needed to win as the season winds down.

So, +3000? That’s quite a gap between the Seahawks and the +600 49ers.

ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE

Jump on the Bengals and Bills as a nice counter to heavy AFC favorite Kansas City. Catch the price while it still carries value.

–Field Level Media

The post NFL Super Odds Post-Deadline appeared first on Digital Sports Desk.

Bills (3-1) vs. Jaguars (2-2), in London: The Jaguars will become the first NFL team to play two consecutive games overseas; they are the designated away team after beating the Atlanta Falcons 23-7 last week in their home away from home. It’s Buffalo’s second-ever trip overseas after it lost to Jacksonville 34-31 in London in 2015. The Bills have won three straight and rank second in the league at 34.8 points per game. Their veteran edge rusher, Von Miller, has indicated he expects to be activated from the physically unable to perform list to make his season debut. A Jaguars-Bills game also offers the rare opportunity for Josh Allen to sack Josh Allen: The Jacksonville linebacker by that name already has six sacks this season, tied with Khalil Mack and T.J. Watt for the league lead.

The post NFL in London: Bills vs Jaguars appeared first on Digital Sports Desk.

CLEVELAND – (Staff and Wire Service Report) – Bye weeks are on the horizon, but with all 32 teams in action this week, another full smorgasbord of prop picks shuffles in along with NFL Week 3. Newer bettors can be overwhelmed by the almost limitless offerings. Viewing your props as merely a derivative of how you expect the game to unfold is critical.

With that strategy in mind, here are our top five player props for Week 3.

Ryan Tannehill over 197.5 passing yards (-118 at FanDuel) Per DVOA metrics, the Browns rank second defensively. However, a big part of their ranking involves the three points allowed the Bengals on a wet day in Cleveland.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had all sorts of problems during the game, and it’s not a stretch to say that he’s nowhere near fully healthy this season due to a lingering calf injury.

In Week 2, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett threw for 222 yards.

FanDuel has a projection under 200 passing yards for Tannehill, and that number is short.

It’s worth noting that according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Tannehill ranks seventh in intended air yards per attempt (8.6 per game), whereas Burrow and Pickett rank 23rd and 24th.

Tyler Allgeier over 40.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM) – The Atlanta Falcons are flying high and off to a 2-0 start. A big part of their success has been the running game behind the duo of Allgeier and Bijan Robinson.

Robinson will get the bulk of the headlines as a first-round rookie, but Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith seems committed to getting Allgeier touches, especially near the goal line.

Interestingly, Allgeier (31) has two more carries than Robinson (29) through two games.

And although Atlanta is tied for first (51%) with Dallas in average run rate, their average margin of victory (+7.5) is 22.5 points less than the Cowboys.

Allgeier posted at least 48 rushing yards in his two games against the Panthers (ninth) and Packers (14th), two teams ranked higher in run defense EPA than the Lions.

Look for the Falcons to continue to share the workload with Allgeier rushing for over 40.5 yards.

Jordan Love over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135 at BetMGM)
Green Bay missed a golden opportunity to stay perfect on the season after blowing a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Falcons.

The 1-1 Packers host New Orleans to take on a Saints team off to a 2-0 start.

New Orleans (+2.0) has the lowest margin of victory of any of the remaining undefeated teams. And according to TeamRankings, the Saints sit third in their luck factor metrics.

We’ve noticed with Green Bay the offense might not always look fluid, but it has been potent inside the red zone — tied for first with an 83.3 percent touchdown conversion rate.

Love ranks fourth (75.2) in the league in Total QBR with six touchdowns on the season and has yet to throw an interception.

Raheem Mostert under 13.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM) – I don’t want to rely on too many overs, which ushers in this play on Mostert receiving yards.

The Dolphins running back had a heavier workload in Week 2, with 18 rushing attempts compared to 10 in the season opener.

Mostert gets the bulk of carries, but Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will continue to use Mostert sparingly in their passing game.

In Week 1, the Dolphins had 466 receiving yards against a Chargers team that ranks 29th in EPA against the pass, and Mostert still finished with two catches for 13 yards.

Miami already has five players with at least 65 receiving yards, and McDaniel said he’s ready to roll out rookie running back De’Von Achane in a more consistent role starting Sunday.

JuJu Smith-Schuster under 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet) – Smith-Schuster signed a three-year deal worth $33 million and signs pointed to the former Steelers and Chiefs receiver playing a major role.

Through two games, he’s averaging just 30.5 receiving yards and has yet to score a touchdown.

A closer look at his NFL Next Gen Stats reveals that Smith-Schuster (-2.1) ranks 97th among 99 players in yards after catch above expectation (YAC +/-) with at least eight targets.

Enter the New York Jets, a team with a strong secondary.

New York ranks 13th in defensive DVOA, and Smith-Schuster will likely line up against Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner.

Per Pro Football Focus, Gardner is tied for 10th in pass coverage with a 79.2 rating.

Despite being tied for second on the team in targets (13), Smith-Schuster is only fifth in total reception yards (61).

Given the matchup with Gardner and this being a divisional game, I like the Patriots wide receiver to stay under 35.5 receiving yards.

The post Props for NFL Week Three appeared first on Digital Sports Desk.

LAS VEGAS – (Wire Service Report) – Teams suffering a beatdown of 10-plus points in Week 1 rebound to cover the spread at a bettable rate in Week 2, according to statistics beginning with the 2014 season.

We have a primary play and a pair of bonus bets for Week 2.

THE HEADLINER
Ravens at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

The line: Bengals (-3.5)

With those Week 1 victims 10-3 against the spread the past two seasons – the Bengals were routed by the Cleveland Browns 24-3 last Sunday – a bounce-back effort is coming.

Cincinnati’s potential isn’t even the biggest reason for an optimistic outcome in the Bengals’ home opener.

It’s the Ravens’ lackluster Week 1 victory over the Houston Texans in which their three-headed running back attack (JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill) gained 63 yards on 24 carries.

And Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson led Baltimore with 38 yards on six carries – more impressive than his final passing stats (17 for 22, 169 yards, no TDs and one interception).

Houston held a narrow edge in total yards, 268-265, against Baltimore, which was penalized 13 times for 108 yards and surrendered 242 passing yards to rookie CJ Stroud in his NFL debut.

The Ravens’ defensive backfield is far from healthy and there is trouble on the offensive line.

Early this week, coach John Harbaugh said safety Marcus Williams and offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum won’t play in Cincinnati.

After managing only 142 total offense in Week 1 at Cleveland, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, et al, can’t wait to get into the starting blocks.

Burrow struggled mightily last week, going 14 for 31 for just 82 yards, good for a 52.2 passer rating.

“Nobody is panicking in here,” Burrow said. “Week 1 doesn’t define anybody’s season. Obviously, (we were) not very good out there. … But we’ve been in this spot before, we’ve come back stronger and had a great year, so that’s what we’re going to do.”

After a 1-3 start, the Bengals won 12 of their final 14 regular-season games last season.

The pick: Bengals -3.5

BETTING TRENDS

The key to the weekend is finding the best fit for the Week 1/Week 2 trend.

According to Action Network stats, since the start of the 2014 season, teams that lost by at least 10 points in Week 1 have covered the spread at a 62.9 percent rate in Week 2.

The Panthers, Bengals, Colts, Texans, Steelers, Bears, Seahawks and Giants are the candidates to bounce back.

BONUS COMBO

Another game that fits the trend, along with a player prop to consider.

Saints at Panthers, 7:15 p.m. ET Monday

The line: Saints (-3.5)

In Week 1, the Saints were what was expected of them: a struggling offense without suspended star running back Alvin Kamara and with quarterback Derek Carr in his first game.

That 16-15 win over Tennessee was a home game, but the scene shifts to the road and the Monday Night Football spotlight.

Carolina’s 24-10 setback in Atlanta provided a nice opportunity for rookie quarterback Bryce Young to find his footing against an aggressive defense.

Panthers coach Frank Reich should be able to help Young’s game-planning from Week 1 to Week 2 and the pair can find the right recipe to cover this number against New Orleans.

The pick: Panthers +3.

PROP CORNER

Lions RB David Montgomery rushing yards

The Detroit Lions upset the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, and Sunday’s opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, dropped a 30-13 stunner at home to the Los Angeles Rams.

The Seahawks, 5.5-point underdogs, fit the Week 1 blowout/Week 2 rebound model but that’s not the play here.

It’s Montgomery against the Seahawks’ run defense.

Seattle wasn’t awful, statistically anyway, against the Rams running backs – but that’s because LA QB Matt Stafford was carving up the secondary.

If Seattle devotes more attention to its pass defense, the run D will be even more vulnerable.

Montgomery’s workload in KC is the final word here. He carried the ball 21 times, and volume is the king when it comes to player props.

With the winning number of 57+ rushing yards and a game that should stay close throughout, this feels like a relatively easy cover.

The pick: Montgomery over 56.5 yards.

– Field Level Media

The post NFL Week 2: Props and Thoughts appeared first on Digital Sports Desk.

All of the College and Pro Football fans visiting Digital Sports Desk can visit DSD/BettingHero for information on each week’s games.

The post Attention: Football Fans – ’23 appeared first on Digital Sports Desk.